New AHA analysis reinforces negligible deforestation risk for U.S. hardwood supply chains

A new independent assessment commissioned for the American Hardwood Assured (AHA) Platform has confirmed that U.S. hardwood production continues to present an exceptionally low risk of deforestation, providing robust evidence to support compliance with the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).

The 2025 assessment analysed 2,615 counties across 37 hardwood-producing states, covering more than 154.5 million hectares of forest. Using a combination of artificial intelligence, satellite imagery and expert verification, the study identified an estimated 18,983 hectares of forest per year that may have been converted to agricultural land. This represents an annual conversion rate of just 0.012% of the forest resource—around one-sixteenth of the 0.2% annual forest-loss threshold used by the European Commission when identifying low-risk countries under the EUDR.

The analysis found that 2,578 of the 2,615 counties assessed (98.6%) were classified as Negligible Risk, while only 37 counties (1.4%) exceeded AHA's precautionary threshold for further investigation. Following a detailed review using AHA's Expert Eye verification process, 13 counties were confirmed as Specified Risk, where agricultural conversion exceeded the platform's threshold, and 24 counties were assessed as Unspecified Risk.

The report also demonstrates that only a tiny proportion of U.S. hardwood production is potentially exposed to deforestation risk. Of the 86 million cubic metres of hardwood harvested annually across the assessed states, only around 11,600 cubic metres were estimated to originate from areas potentially converted to agriculture—equivalent to approximately 1.3 cubic metres for every 10,000 cubic metres harvested, or around 0.013% of annual production.

A key finding of the study is that hardwood harvesting is not a significant driver of deforestation. Statistical analysis showed that hardwood production explains less than 1% of the variation in forest loss across the counties assessed. Instead, where permanent forest loss does occur, it is overwhelmingly associated with agricultural expansion and other land-use changes rather than sustainable timber harvesting.

The 2025 assessment also marks a significant advance in the AHA Platform's methodology. Artificial intelligence is now complemented by the Expert Eye verification process, in which a specialist examines higher-resolution satellite imagery to distinguish genuine forest conversion from harvesting, storm damage, fire, pests and other events that can generate false positives. These expert assessments are used to continuously refine the AI model, improving the accuracy of future analyses.

The report concludes that U.S. hardwood production is overwhelmingly taking place within stable, managed forest landscapes where harvested forests remain forests after harvest. Together with annual monitoring and continual improvements in AI and expert verification, the AHA Platform provides exporters and customers with an increasingly rigorous, science-based approach to demonstrating negligible deforestation risk and supporting EUDR due diligence.